At the U.N., overwhelming anger at Israel - 27 septembre 2024
Washington post
At the U.N., overwhelming anger at Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak Friday at the U.N. General Assembly, and New York City cops were bracing for further protests. Dozens of antiwar activists, calling for an end to Israel's military campaigns over Gaza and Lebanon, were already arrested on Manhattan streets on Tuesday. Among those planning to demonstrate against Netanyahu's visit is the family of Nimrod Cohen, an Israeli soldier held in captivity in Gaza after militant group Hamas launched its deadly Oct. 7 strike on southern Israel.

Cohen's parents told my colleagues earlier this month that they blame Netanyahu — not Hamas, a terrorist organization over which they have no influence — for not seizing the opportunities presented to him to bring about a cease-fire and the release of the remaining hostages. The expert consensus among Israeli and regional analysts is that a cease-fire in Gaza does not serve Netanyahu's personal interests, in part because members of his far-right coalition want the war to continue.

The plight of hostages — never mind the 2 million Palestinian civilians in Gaza whose homes have been destroyed and lives turned upside down — are lesser concerns, say Netanyahu's critics. “There is a rope hanging over my son's head,” Yehuda, Cohen's father, told The Washington Post. “But we still have a reason to fight. I don't think of anything else.”

Netanyahu is himself fighting on other fronts. He arrived in New York as Israel stepped up its bombardments of alleged Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, an offensive that has already claimed hundreds of Lebanese lives, including women and children. After emergency consultations, the United States and France led a push for an immediate 21-day cease-fire to cool tensions. The call was agreed in coordination with Israel, according to U.S. officials, but Netanyahu seemed to reverse course, distancing himself from talk of an imminent cease-fire in Lebanon after domestic pressure from his right flank.


Netanyahu, in a statement, instructed his country's forces to “continue fighting at full force.” Israeli polls show that while Netanyahu's handling of the war in Gaza is becoming less popular, there is public enthusiasm for opening up a war on the northern front. Israeli officials insist that their escalation, including a potential ground offensive, is necessary in order for tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by fear of Hezbollah rocket fire to return to their communities.

At the United Nations, though, dignitaries and leaders condemned the spiraling conflict and called on Israel to rein its actions. “An all-out war must be avoided at all costs,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said, warning that “hell” was “breaking loose” over Lebanon. “It would surely be an all-out catastrophe,” he added.

“Israel is violating our sovereignty by sending their warplanes and drones to our skies,” Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati told a special session of the Security Council on Wednesday, saying that Israel had spread “terror and fear among the Lebanese citizens in full view of the world” — just days after Israel had allegedly exploded numerous pagers and other communications devices in the possession of Hezbollah operatives across the country, killing scores.
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Israeli officials routinely bristle at censure in the United Nations. Danny Danon, Israel's envoy at the United Nations, lambasted the “annual show of hypocrisy” at the General Assembly. Regarding Lebanon, he said Israeli strikes were “precise” and aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah's considerable capacity to threaten Israel. “I sit here again to defend Israel's actions as if any other country in our situation would behave differently, would chart any different course and would not act in the defense of their people,” Danon said.


But a legion of critics followed, denouncing the killings of more than 40,000 people in Gaza and the unfurling war over Lebanon. “Stop this crime. Stop it now. Stop killing children and women. Stop the genocide. Stop sending weapons to Israel,” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said, adding that much of Gaza was “destroyed” and also pointing to Israel's deadly operations in areas of the West Bank. “This madness cannot continue. The entire world is responsible for what is happening to our people in Gaza and the West Bank.”

While denouncing Hamas and Hezbollah, world leaders cast Israel's heavy-handed campaigns and the inability of the U.N. system to rein it as a danger to the institution itself. “The right of self-defense is being used as a weapon of mass extermination, stoking legitimate fears of genocide,” said Guyana's president Mohamed Irfaan Ali. “No State, large or small, should feel comfortable and safe when such atrocities are allowed to continue with impunity.”

“The global international order faces a test that threatens its existence,” said Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, decrying Israel's killing of civilians in both Gaza and Lebanon.
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Last week, the General Assembly passed a resolution by a huge majority calling for the dismantling of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and an end to the Israeli occupation — something that's nowhere in the cards and impossible to enforce. But numerous dignitaries in New York reiterated their condemnations of settler provocations and calls for a separate, sovereign Palestinian state.

“It is our common interest and shared responsibility to ensure strict respect for international law and humanitarian law, as well as the proper functioning of the international justice system,” Portuguese prime minister Luís Montenegro said.

“In Palestine we must ask ourselves: whose interests are driving the war?” asked Finnish president Alexander Stubb from the dais of the General Assembly, in a perhaps oblique nod at Netanyahu. “Peace meets the interests of the global majority, and the Palestinians and Israelis.”

He added: “There are no more excuses. This war needs to end and it needs to end now.”

By Ishaan Tharoor with Kelsey Baker

Voir, lire ou entendre : Washington post

A ground war against Hezbollah would be another quagmire for Israel - 27 septembre 2024
Washington post
A ground war against Hezbollah would be another quagmire for Israel

Neither side appears to have an exit strategy.

If you want to see how nations can stumble into wars without end, the ongoing (and rapidly escalating) conflict between Israel and Hezbollah provides a textbook example.

Ever since Hamas's brutal Oct. 7 attack on Israel, Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terrorist organization based in Lebanon, has been showing support for its partners in the “axis of resistance” with relentless rocket and drone fire into northern Israel. About 60,000 Israelis were forced to evacuate their homes and still have not been able to come back, even with a new school year beginning. One particularly gruesome Hezbollah rocket attack killed 12 children in the Golan Heights.
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Yet neither Hezbollah nor Israel was eager for full-fledged war: Israel wanted to concentrate on fighting Hamas, while Hezbollah was afraid of the mauling it would receive from the powerful Israel Defense Forces. There have been exchanges of fire across Israel's northern border for nearly a year, but both sides appeared content to keep the hostilities relatively restrained.
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That restraint began to slip last week when Israel unleashed a sophisticated covert operation, triggering thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies secretly packed with explosives. A Hezbollah official told Reuters that 1,500 of its fighters were put out of commission with varying injuries. It isn't clear why Israel triggered the long-prepared attack when it did. The Israeli press reported that the most likely reason was fear that Hezbollah was about to uncover the operation, putting Israel in a “use it or lose it” dilemma.

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Having triggered the covert attack, Israel then followed up with airstrikes that killed Ibrahim Aqil, the commander of Hezbollah's special operations unit, the Radwan Force; Ibrahim Qubaisi, the commander of Hezbollah's rocket forces; and other senior Hezbollah leaders. This week, the IDF expanded its bombing campaign to target not only Hezbollah commanders in southern Beirut but also Hezbollah missile installations in southern Lebanon. Israel claims to have struck more than 1,500 targets, while the Lebanese health ministry reports that nearly 600 people have been killed and more than 1,800 injured since Monday. (The ministry does not distinguish between combatants and noncombatants.)

There is no doubt that the IDF has inflicted substantial damage on Hezbollah, but there's also little evidence that it will be enough to stop Hezbollah's attacks on northern Israel. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote that “Lebanese Hezbollah will probably continue to conduct rocket attacks into northern Israel despite the ongoing Israeli air campaign.” Indeed, Hezbollah fired a ballistic missile toward Tel Aviv on Wednesday. It was intercepted, but Israeli air defense would have trouble coping if Hezbollah were to unleash its full arsenal, estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles.

From Israel's perspective, the best-case scenario would be if its air campaign persuaded Hezbollah to declare a cease-fire, thereby allowing residents of northern Israel to return to their homes. But air campaigns alone have seldom, if ever, achieved any nation's military objectives. It normally takes ground action to decisively defeat a foe.

On Wednesday, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the IDF's chief of staff, signaled that a ground incursion could be imminent. Remarkably, most Israelis now support a ground incursion into Lebanon, if necessary, despite knowing how badly such offensives have gone in the past.

In 1982, responding to Palestine Liberation Organization terrorist attacks originating in southern Lebanon, Israel mounted a major invasion that brought IDF forces to the edge of Beirut. But Israeli hopes of installing a friendly, Christian-dominated regime in Lebanon were soon dashed. The Israeli invasion led, instead, to the birth of Hezbollah, one of the world's deadliest terrorist groups. Israeli forces — along with U.S. and French peacekeepers — became targets for Hezbollah's suicide bombers and guerrillas. Indeed, suicide bombing was a tactic that Hezbollah pioneered and that was later adopted by al-Qaeda and other organizations. The IDF spent roughly two decades occupying a security zone in southern Lebanon before finally giving up and retreating to Israel in 2000.

Six years later, a cross-border Hezbollah attack drew the IDF back into Lebanon. The Second Lebanon War lasted 34 days, cost Israel 119 soldiers and 43 civilians (roughly 1,200 Lebanese were killed), and resulted in a stalemate. Highly motivated Hezbollah fighters proved surprisingly adept at ambushing Israeli tanks and infantry in the villages of southern Lebanon. An Israeli commission of inquiry subsequently blasted the Ehud Olmert government and the IDF for serious failures of “judgment, responsibility and prudence.”

The IDF would likely find Hezbollah to be an even more formidable adversary today than in 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 fighters, many with extensive combat experience from Syria, where Hezbollah has fought on behalf of the odious Assad regime. Hezbollah is now armed with drones and Almas antitank guided missiles, which were most likely reverse engineered by Iran from an Israeli missile that was captured in 2006.

Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, and, unlike Hamas, it cannot easily be isolated from outside support. Lebanon has a long border with Syria, a long coastline and a major international airport, all of which Iran can use to resupply Hezbollah. And, like Hamas, Hezbollah has built an extensive tunnel network that will prove exceedingly difficult for the IDF to map or destroy. Hezbollah's missiles are hidden underneath civilian homes. Any attempt to root them out will inevitably lead to civilian casualties and add to the international outcry against Israel.

Hezbollah, admittedly, will have difficulty exercising command and control of its forces after the Israeli attack on its pagers and walkie-talkies, but it has built a dedicated landline telephone network for such a contingency, and its fighters are trained in autonomous, small-unit operations. As they showed in 2006, Hezbollah guerrillas, unlike conventional Arab armies, can take initiative and maneuver without orders from above. And, while Israel can eliminate senior Hezbollah commanders, they can always be replaced.

If Israel does attack on the ground, it could easily become trapped in another quagmire. But if it doesn't, it may not be able to stop the intolerable attacks on its north. It isn't clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a strategy to address this vexing strategic dilemma.

But then it's not clear that Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has a strategy either. In his desire to show support for Hamas, he is doing grave damage to his own organization and to Lebanese society more broadly. Most Lebanese have no desire to be dragged into a war Hezbollah initiated (in one recent poll, only 3 in 10 respondents expressed quite a lot or a great deal of trust in the organization), but they have no choice in the matter. The two enemies are sleepwalking toward disaster.

An off-ramp may still be possible if Netanyahu presses for a cease-fire in Gaza, as IDF commanders have urged, which would allow Hezbollah a face-saving climbdown of its own. But Netanyahu shows no desire to end the war in Gaza anytime soon. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, for his part, also shows no urgency when it comes to ending this devastating conflict.

In the meantime, Netanyahu is benefiting politically from the escalating war against Hezbollah, which is popular with the Israeli public. But as many nations including Israel have learned to their dismay, wars are easy to start and hard to finish. And if military operations turn into quagmires, their popularity soon dissipates. Israel now faces the prospect of not just one quagmire but two — in both Gaza and Lebanon. The likelihood is that, eventually, the prewar status quo will be restored along the Israel-Lebanon border — but only at great cost in human suffering on all sides.

Voir, lire ou entendre : Washington post

Normalising pogroms against Palestinians - 27 septembre 2024
Haaretz Hebrew original
Normalising pogroms against Palestinians

Outright lies, faux scientific racism, and intimidation: How to justify Israeli settler violence and lynching of Palestinians even when they are Israeli citizens

One of the lowest moments of Amit Segal's career (and let's face it — his career is replete with them) was the “poll” in which he “asked”: “Do you agree with the proposition that the government relies on terror supporters?” That survey was intended to incite against Arab citizens of Israel and had no base in reality. But two years have since passed, and with a lot of faith and hard work, we succeeded, thank God, in fulfilling our dream and arrive at a government that does indeed rely on terror supporters.

When it comes to the realm of support for terrorism, MK Limor Son Har-Melech truly stands out. In the Knesset yesterday it was she who, with great ferocity,y defended the devoted righteous individuals who attacked four women and a toddler, residents of Bedouin town of Rahat in Israel, who found themselves in the Givat Ronen outpost. It's not easy to find a way to come to the defence of such an incident, but when it comes to justifying settler violence, Har-Melech can perform more spectacular somersaults than Simone Biles. Her floor routine rests on three elements that we have become accustomed to seeing in her performances: outright lies, faux scientific racism, and intimidation.

Har-Melech argued that the vehicle had “non-Israeli licence plates” (ie, the rioters thought they were Palestinian, and that therefore they could be burnt), stressed that “this is not any Israeli family” (under Har-Melech's racial laws, only Jews are Israelis), stressed that “such an innocent episode can be an espionage episode” (they were Arabs, well, they even utilise toddlers in espionage), and clarified that “there are no compromises in this sort of episodes” (“this sort of episodes” — women driving cars, “there are no compromises” — you mow them down and burn their car.)

It is no coincidence that Har-Melech focused on the tangential issue of the licence plates. Settler violence is a routine that is often ignored, but since this time the victims are Israelis, the media still devoted a bit of time to them. “They set the car alight the car when we were inside it… A normal person can't understand that,” Lamis al-Ja'ar told Channel 12's news anchor Adi Zarifi, describing how one of the settlers threatened her toddler daughter with a gun and mocked her: “Cry, cry some more.”

Faced with these disturbing descriptions, Zarifi fell into Har-Melech's trap — like many others yesterday — and repeatedly questioned al-Ja'ar about whether the vehicle was indeed Israeli. Thus, Har-Melech achieved two goals: first, normalising pogroms against Palestinians, as if the question of whether it is permissible to burn a person depends on the colour of their licence plates [Israeli plates are yellow, Palestinian are green]; Second, the marking of this lynching as an exceptional incident, stemming from a human error, and not as part of systematic violence whose perpetrators enjoy complete immunity and state backing.

Givat Ronen settlers often attack residents of nearby villages precisely because they know that no one cares when the victims are Palestinians. So Har-Melech may not have been able to justify the current lynching, but she has certainly succeeded in focusing the media debate on a tangential claptrap rather than the ongoing reality of riots protected by law — as long as they are directed against people with the appropriate licence plates.

By Yoana Gonen

Voir, lire ou entendre : Haaretz Hebrew original

A new crisis may plunge Libya back into chaos - 27 septembre 2024
Washington post
A new crisis may plunge Libya back into chaos

The news out of Libya that tends to grab international attention often involves stark tragedy and disaster. If it's not the harrowing civil war that has convulsed the oil-rich North Africa nation for years and split it in two, then it's the drowning of migrants motoring out from Libya's poorly patrolled coasts or the epochal flood that killed thousands in the city of Derna a year ago.

In recent months, though, the considerable drama gripping the country has been far more shadowy, shaped by backroom deals, black market transfers and illicit smuggling. But it's equally important and fraught. A rolling crisis over control of Libya's central bank has paralyzed the economy and sparked new fears of conflict. Oil exports have dropped precipitously in recent weeks, while ordinary Libyans are facing long lines at gas stations, restrictions on their ability to withdraw cash from banks and a collapsing electricity grid.

The upheaval is the consequence of a spat that flared in August but was long in the works, experts say. A move by forces close to Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, who leads the government in western Libya, centered in the capital Tripoli, saw officials in the Central Bank kidnapped and led the bank's longtime governor, Sadiq al-Kabir, to flee into self-imposed exile in Turkey. The Central Bank, which is the sole legal repository of Libya's oil-generated wealth, ceased functioning. Oil exports were quickly shut down.

Kabir, in Istanbul, said Thursday that Libya was essentially cut off from the world financial system. “All international banks that we deal with, more than 30 major international institutions, have suspended all transactions,” he told Reuters. “All work has been suspended at the international level. Therefore, there is no access to balances or deposits outside Libya.”

At its root, the dispute is about rival power brokers' designs on oil revenue in a country with Africa's largest oil reserves. Dbeibah's faction is at odds with that of Khalifa Hifter, which holds sway in eastern Libya and has cultivated deep ties with foreign powers such as Russia and the United Arab Emirates. In the tail end of the country's ruinous civil war, Haftar attempted an offensive to capture Tripoli that ultimately failed when Turkey rushed military aid and support to the government in Tripoli. The internationally brokered cease-fire in 2020 that followed has settled into an uneasy peace, with Dbeibah and Haftar fighting their battles through other means — for now.

U.N.-led efforts to resolve the dispute are underway. But the situation is a reminder of the perilous state of affairs in Libya, which has lurched from crisis to calamity since the bloody revolution and NATO-backed campaign that overthrew Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi in 2011. The country has not experienced stable governance since and is now torn apart by two rival political entities and a patchwork of armed groups. The Dbeibahs and the Haftars have emerged as powerful, quasi-dynastic clans, vying for influence over the key institutions like the Central Bank and the National Oil Corporation, through which most of Libya's oil revenue flows. Analysts say Dbeibah's manipulation of the bank for his corrupt ends saw Kabir warm to Haftar, who is simultaneously alleged to also be presiding over vast networks of illicit smuggling.

“Kabir had sown the seeds of his own demise,” the Economist explained. “At first he bought off his chief challengers: the people who had risen against dictatorship. After Gaddafi the state payroll almost doubled to 2.4 million in a country of 7 million. It is claimed the bank funded the warlords, paying fighters who both besieged and defended Tripoli.”
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The British newsweekly added: “When the fighting ended in 2020, Kabir financed their ever-more grandiose schemes for hiving off Libya's vast oil revenue. He paid billions to import fuel at market prices, subsidized it to make it the world's cheapest, then let it be smuggled overland and increasingly by tanker to Europe. The more lucre and power the recipients amassed, the weaker he grew. When he tried to rein in the purse strings, it was too late.”
A general drone view shows the Nafoora oil field in Jakharrah, Libya, on Aug. 27. (Jawhar Deehoum/Reuters)

A general drone view shows the Nafoora oil field in Jakharrah, Libya, on Aug. 27. (Jawhar Deehoum/Reuters)

Deeper strains are showing. “The arrangements bridging east and west appear to be nearing a breaking point,” Libya scholar Wolfram Lacher wrote in a lengthy essay for New Lines magazine, pointing to a growing body of evidence regarding the state plunder carried out by both parties, but especially the Haftars. He added: “In the meantime, the Haftars' greatly improved access to funds threatens to destabilize the balance of power. [Khalifa Hifter's son] Saddam has told close associates that he is seeking to turn western Libyan factions against each other and buy the support of selected militia leaders — a task made easier by the money he now has at his disposal. His father has informed Western diplomats that he intends to make another attempt to seize Tripoli.”

Over the past week, a flurry of top regional officials, including Turkey's spy chief, have visited the country. The tensions have threatened a rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, which find themselves at different sides of Libya's divide. “Egypt and the UAE have backed Haftar in part because of his staunch anti-Islamist ideology that opposes the reliance of the Tripoli government on militias linked to the Muslim Brotherhood movement,” noted the Soufan Center, an independent global security think tank, in a memo earlier this month. “Turkey, by contrast, has engaged regional Muslim Brotherhood-inspired movements and views Haftar as a right-wing figure dedicated to reducing Ankara's regional influence. Russia, for its part, sees Haftar's control of most of Libya's oil fields as a tool in Moscow's global competition with the United States and its European partners, all of which are backing Ukraine.”

The tangled geopolitics belies the frustrations of many Libyans who simply want a degree of political stability. “If you ask any normal Libyan, they'll say we need one government, we need elections,” a former adviser to the Libyan government, speaking on the condition of anonymity over fears to their safety, told me. But, they added, the country's power brokers aren't interested in such an outcome. “Why would Haftar want one government?” the former official said. “He can print money as he pleases, now, and smuggle oil.”
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A lack of Western attention here may be dangerous, especially at a moment when foreign powers could exert some pressure on Libya's factions to get in line. “Diplomats may be busy stopping other wars in Ukraine and Gaza from growing into monstrous regional conflicts,” wrote Tarek Megerisi of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “But if they're too consumed to take this brief opportunity, then they may well end up with a third before too long.”

By Ishaan Tharoor with Sammy Westfall

Voir, lire ou entendre : Washington post

RENTREE - 26 septembre 2024
Jacques Grieu
RENTREE


L'été fuit doucement, emportant ses éclats,
Et septembre revient, messager du branle-bas.
Les rires des enfants, l'écho des jeux, s'effacent ;
Sous le poids des cartables, le devoir prend sa place.
Les classes se remplissent de murmures timides,
Et les plumes s'agitent sur des cahiers candides.
L'heure de la rentrée est un évènement,
Et qui n'agite pas que nos charmants enfants ;
Elle rythme tout autant la routine des parents
Et encore un peu plus celle du gouvernement.
Les devoirs des ministres sont aussi fort ardus
Mais sont sans professeurs pour cocher les bévues.
La « rentrée » n'est donc pas forcément un plaisir.
Entre boire et conduire, on dit « qu'il faut choisir » ;
Oui, mais comment rentrer ? A pied ? Et en courant ?
Chacun sort de ses gonds toujours plus aisément
Qu'il ne sait y rentrer; certains n'y rentrent plus.
« Monter sur leurs grands chevaux » est devenu leur but.
Si on rentre son ventre quand on va se peser
On n'en est pas moins lourd; se sent-on plus léger ?
Parfois, c'est en soi-même qu'on aime bien rentrer;
« Rentrer dans sa coquille » est alors conseillé.
S'il arrive souvent qu'on en rentre bredouille,
On rentre… dans le rang. Et puis, on se débrouille...
Jacques Grieu

Voir, lire ou entendre : Jacques Grieu